The Internet Will Collapse in 2012 - AT&T

[Drew Wilson]

story category AT&T Front Group Claims Internet End Is Nigh

As a rule, most warnings of Internet capacity armageddon come from traffic shaping companies looking to sell hardware, or industry lobbyists trying to shape policy through think tanks. The term "exaflood," created by the same think tank who crafted the term "intelligent design," is part of a sophisticated campaign aimed at convincing the press, public and lawmakers that without giving carriers what they want (less regulation, no net neutrality laws, no price controls, huge subsidies and tax credits, less consumer protection), the world will simply run out of bandwidth and we'll all be weeping over our clogged tubes.

Andrew Odlyzko, one of the nation's top experts on global Internet traffic, repeatedly notes that while growth is strong, it doesn't necessitate drastic new pricing model shifts (metered billing), and is entirely manageable with just modest capacity upgrades. According to Odlyzko, the current Internet growth rate of about 50% per year "can be accommodated with essentially the current level of capital investment." If anything, Odlyzko predicts a slow down (something Cogent confirms).

But carriers are better served having the public worry that we're running out of capacity and need to take drastic steps to avoid problems. That's why a think tank named the Discovery Institute (who also crafted the phrase "intelligent design" used to help push creationism into U.S. classrooms) cooked up the term "exaflood" in a 2007 Wall Street Journal editorial.

The term is part of a campaign aimed at convincing the public and lawmakers that an industry that has always managed to adapt to bandwidth demand, will suddenly fail to do so without drastic action. What action? In addition to favorable policy, carriers throughout North America are using the non-existent crunch to argue for new metered pricing models, and increased throttling of competitors' traffic. Carriers like AT&T can't very well propose new caps on usage if you're out there believing that they already make a healthy profit and can consistently meet capacity demands.

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Why not just bail out the telecom industry with 700PB? Since it's possible to make up money, why not storage space?

[mountain_rage]

Funny, last I heard technology is being developed to lower consumption and increase speeds at small costs. Can't remember the specifics but people are working at removing redundant traffic on the internet. So if two people want the same information in Japan, and its being sent from the U.S. rather than both getting their own dedicated transfer, it would branch off and only split the information once it has to. So I have to agree with the article, sounds like BS to me, especially considering the inclusion of the discovery institute.

[Lord_of_the_Dense]

It's ok. I'm sure I'll be where I want to be in 2012.

[YWD67]

What is the Exaflood?

This video was funded by the Internet Innovation Alliance, a group backed by AT&T.

Does anyone remember a few years back about BPL (Broadband over powerlines) It was supposed to be great. Unlike cable DSL, there is no signal degradation that requires a signal booster after so many feet of cable.
Power lines being larger carry more bandwith. It was going to me just plugging your computer into the wall and you had power and internet both.
Well, it has been one of those days where everyone has been reading my mind (or spying at me with cameras more likely). I was thinking about what happend to that idea last week and did some checking.
Here is a good link about the fabled unlimited internet line.
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/20...roadband_N.htm

And here is a good store giving an obituary for BPL.
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post...st-mortem.html

I guess BPL may go the way as the 80 MPG car that was predicted to be here over a decade ago.

[mountain_rage]

What ever happened to the idea of just letting companies die? When the railroad infrastructure was first being built, many lost everything trying to make it work. But under this build and die reality, companies bought the infrastructure at a reduced price. So why can't just let the same thing happen with the internet, its not like companies won't be willing to get into the game, considering the profits to be made.

[kokanezub]

2012 is the new 2000.... y2k /12

[A_mber]

you know the world's suppose to end in 2012 right?

[Lord_of_the_Dense]

For some, the internet is the world.

It is for me.

[mountain_rage]

Without the internet I would be a straight A student.

[Mels_Smileys45]

So thats what those Mayan's were on about. I feel better now that I know its not the end of the world.

[YWD67]

So thats what those Mayan's were on about. I feel better now that I know its not the end of the world.

You mean their calendar ended because they ran out of bandwith.

Good old Rev Falwell and his the second come was gong to in 2000. Half way through the year he came up with some kind of BS statement that he missed somekind of biblical passage and the end of the world was going to be 2010. Now that it is closer to 2010 they are talking no chances it not happening then either by changing it to 2012.

[Mels_Smileys45]

Shit, the world has been "ending" for hundreds of years now. Its a nice way to make a living.

[A_mber]

Shit, the world has been "ending" for hundreds of years now. Its a nice way to make a living.

LMFAO, that's exactly what I said when I was told about 2012.

[fer007]

LOL, everythings seems to be ending in 2012.

I think it's just advertising for the 3rd X-Files movie XD

[shawners]

Electric company will run the ISP rate like electricity.. HIGH BILL. I think well run out of IP addresses before the collapse and it will keep it from collapsing.