The future of P2P

[Smoker616]

What do you all think will come next. I belive that the RIAA will successfully shut down the P2P networks. I dont see them rounding up people and sendin them to jail. But I do think that after they win this upcomming case with verizon they will send out thousands of cease and desist letters to p2p users. It wont cost them the john doe lawsuit to get the names from ip's anymore so progress for them will be alot faster. Once people get a letter in the mail the bulk of them will stop sharing. The ones left will be rounded up and the public wont have much sympathy for them because they were warned. The remaining people who share will have theyre bandwidth sucked up by the millions of leaches. Kazaa, WinMX, Emule, will no longer be an effective way of downloading.

I think that a modified version of freenet will have to be the next step. With freenet you are only at risk when you upload to the network and even then it would be really hard for the RIAA to track you. As for sharing files freenet is set up so that you dont have access to any of the information on your node. You dont know what your sharing or who your sharing with. So it would be impossible for the RIAA to prove that you have knowledge of the files your uploading.

Are there any other technologies that will be viable after the potential P2P holocaust?

[wonderboy2005]

i don't beleive that p2p will go down as we know it. p2p has eveolved into what we want it to be, so why would it not evolve to the next stage?

[Winphuk]

But how do you know that they will win the case?

[Winphuk]

Originally posted by Smoker616
I dont see them rounding up people and sendin them to jail.

Really? You don't know how far this Nazi government can push things like this.

[wonderboy2005]

Originally posted by Winphuk
Really? You don't know how far this Nazi government can push things like this.

im sorry, but that's a load of shit. though the majority of people in this country may blindly follow their leader(s), there are more than enough people in this country who do NOT. when they see somthing getting out of hand, they make noise about it. people will hear, and will not accept a "nazi"-like government.

there is just no way.

[Winphuk]

Originally posted by wonderboy2005
im sorry, but that's a load of shit. though the majority of people in this country may blindly follow their leader(s), there are more than enough people in this country who do NOT. when they see somthing getting out of hand, they make noise about it. people will hear, and will not accept a "nazi"-like government.

there is just no way.

When I said Nazi, I didn't mean that they will round up civilians,stick them in trucks, send them to camps and gas them.
My experience when discussing politics with people is that they can be easily swayed from one side of the fence to another.
Alot of people generally don't stand their ground or rooted in any convictions, so that what seems unjust today will be fine tommorow.
They take justice away, and our rights away little by little so we can't see what's going on until it's too late.
Once one liberty is taken, it is very hard, if not impossible to get it back.

[Platinum Theory]

P2P will never die, right now its not very likely thatll well just 'die'. Considering theres about 50,000,000 or so downloaders across the earth, it'll be pretty stupid!. I seriously think theres a better chance that the war in Iraq will stop, George Bush and Saddam will become best frineds and that thre would be all across the world, all porn will be dstryoed and sex will be banned, yeah all that has a better chance to happen then for P2P 2 die, well thats what i think

PS: Wnimphuk, were not communists, u have the Soviet Union in da communist reign, but remeber that theyre dead also, oh well maybe your just mad?

[Winphuk]

Platinum,

First I never said that P2P will die. I'm certain that it won't, but as you can see especially from polititians, like that asshole Senator from Texas, that the government will ruin alot of lives when they try to push something that they feel is in THEIR best interest.
For example, the war on drugs is unwinnable. People will always use and sell illegal drugs and more people will die as a result of DEA enforcement then from the drugs themselves.(organized crime, drug cartels, gang violence, prison deaths ect..)
Why isn't there enough people demanding that they stop the war on drugs?
Legislators don't make laws to serve justice. They only make laws that serve the interest of those who give them financial support.
When you say I'm mad I hope you are right because if what I am saying isn't true, and it's all a delusion in my head I will be so happy because I won't have to think like this anymore.

[Smoker616]

I dont know for sure if the will win this case, even if they dont though the RIAA has made it clear that they will target users. If they cant do it this way they will do it that way. What im trying to say is that when you share on a p2p network your exposed. Even with peer guardian and similar programs the people you upload to and download from know who you are. If the RIAA looses this case they will just file a bunch of john doe lawsuits to target the users. They arnt gonna stop. The reason i see freenet as the future is that you cant find out who is uploading the information on the network. And as for finding out who is downloading, and what they are downloading it is extremly difficult. In this situation the RIAA simply doesnt have anyone to target. The users are anonymous, the network is decentralized. The only thing they can do is try to make the software illegal. They will try to push the angle that freenet supports terrorism and kiddie porn and should therefore not be alowed but then again im getting ahead of myself.....

[endersgame21]

All the RIAA can do is use scare tactics. I think if they win this case they will send letters but they are not going to prosecute that many people. They will prosecute a few to scare filesharers and it will work to some degree. Some networks will lose a lot of users but I still think there will be plenty of users out there. Mayber they will all focus on one network at that point and so the filesharing community wouldn't really be hurt. But after a while the community will grow again and we be even bigger than it is now.
Like I said, all they can use is scare tactics and they can't scare us forever. Sooner or later we will realize that they can't do anything and go back to sharing.
Like I said in another thread, if somehow they do succeed in shutting down all the current filesharing apps and scare off 90% of the filesharers, then maybe p2p will go underground which wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing. We would have one network made up of the more hardcore filesharers which tend to share a lot more files and never leech. So you might even be a better network then all of the networks out today. You would have all users focused on one network and you would get faster speeds since leechers wouldn't be wasting bandwith.

[Theinfamousone]

Originally posted by Smoker616
I dont know for sure if the will win this case, even if they dont though the RIAA has made it clear that they will target users. If they cant do it this way they will do it that way. What im trying to say is that when you share on a p2p network your exposed. Even with peer guardian and similar programs the people you upload to and download from know who you are. If the RIAA looses this case they will just file a bunch of john doe lawsuits to target the users. They arnt gonna stop. The reason i see freenet as the future is that you cant find out who is uploading the information on the network. And as for finding out who is downloading, and what they are downloading it is extremly difficult. In this situation the RIAA simply doesnt have anyone to target. The users are anonymous, the network is decentralized. The only thing they can do is try to make the software illegal. They will try to push the angle that freenet supports terrorism and kiddie porn and should therefore not be alowed but then again im getting ahead of myself.....

I have stayed away from freenet becuase I don't want to support all the porn trading there whatsoever. I hate it when people think that just because there's 3 millions users on Kazaa right now, that P2P is now unstoppable. There's only about 3 major programs that distribute 90% of the content. Between people getting scared and stopping P2P trading, people leeching, the RIAA going after the people that share the most, and convincing all businesses and colleges that it's illegal to trade files on P2P networks, it could be very easy to really mess up P2P as we know it. In one of the recent news articles, Hillary Rosen said that people should check the disable sharing box if they don't want to be publicising their computer. They know that all it takes is a little push, and the networks will look like Winmx, where you can't downloading anything for the life of you, and that's not even under attack by the RIAA.

It's a perpetual problem, once people can't download, they can't share, they lose their motivation to share, because everyone else is being selfish, it's really very sad. I'd say 1/3 of the people on Winmx share little to nothing, combine that with the innate upload is 1/10 of the average download speed, and you've got a very cloggy network.

[Undermind]

Originally posted by Theinfamousone
I have stayed away from freenet becuase I don't want to support all the porn trading there whatsoever.


What did porn ever do to you? lol, just messin'

[Monyak]

P2P cannot be outlawed. To outlaw P2P is essentially to say that the internet will seize to exist.

First, take a look at what the US Gov says Copyright is:

Copyright, a form of intellectual property law, protects original works of authorship including literary, dramatic, musical, and artistic works such as poetry, novels, movies, songs, computer software and architecture. Copyright does not protect facts, ideas, systems, or methods of operation, although it may protect the way these things are expressed.

This means that the RIAA can win court cases, but not stop nor limit the "system, method, or operation", hence you can do P2P!

When you go into a URL, you are essentially downloading a webpage. (Not saving it, just downloading it). Is this copyright infringement?

When you save a webpage (click on FILE / SAVE in your IE Browser Menu), are you stealing Copyright Material?

Filehoover @ ESV said something very interesting. When you download music, is there an accompanying license that says what you can and cannot do - Even if it is copyrighted?

When you purchase music, does it say what is or is not allowed? Where are the restrictions?

I copied this bit of info from http://www.copyright.gov/faq.html#q1

When is my work protected? Your work is under copyright protection the moment it is created and fixed in a tangible form so that it is perceptible either directly or with the aid of a machine or device.

When I download something, I have never seen an accompanied license or warning.

Copyright does not mean that you are forbidden to listen, copy, edit, delete, re-write, or whatever. Copyright just gives the maker or creator credit. The beholder of the copyright bond has to say that it is forbidden to do any of the above.

I havent seen anywhere where Eminem or his copyrighted music says "Hey, if you want to download my music, you got to register or pay, or say a thousand hell marys". That would be a restriction that as copyright holder he is entitled to make. Many websites may sell his material, but then that as well doesnt require a copyright license or his special permission.

I give credit to Eminem when I download his music cause I know that while I may be singing to the rythem, I know damn well that its his song and lyrics. (Should I stop singing or do I need to pay for that to?)

The facts need to be straight. The problem is that to many people figure if they are downloading it and its free, something must be wrong. You are not doing anything illegal cause how the hell can you know what the copyright restrictions are if you download something that doesnt tell you ahead of time, and if its music, it also doesnt tell you while you are listening to it!

You never know what you are downloading via P2P. The name can say "Michael Jackson", but then that child malester is not the only artist who sings and dances and is called Michael Jackson.

The RIAA cannot stop people from creating programs that do P2P. P2P is multi threaded server/host. Hell, why dont we shut down Pc Anywhere, ICQ, and all the companies. ICQ is hosted by AOL, should we be suing them as well? The CIA would love to stop people from creating advanced encryption methods.

If the RIAA succeeds in stopping KAZAA, which they probably will by finding something within the text that can be favorable to them. The judge is probably biased and will reward the RIAA lots of money to create a public scare. But again, that only means that people will stop creating in the US.

The world is just a little bigger than the US of A. The programs will always be there.

Like I said elsewhere, the RIAA is a bullshit orginization who knows that they are there only to keep the music industry in the papers.

Eminem makes about $1 on his CD and $60 a head for every person who shows up at his sold out 50,000 seat concert. Who really gives a shit about a small $1?

[TipYourBartender]

Why do people think think that just because X million people are filesharing, that it can't be stopped? Millions of people were anti-war, and look how far it got them.

There are PLENTY of ways P2P can die, from the Verizon case, to new legislation, to copy-proof CDs, to the greediness of the makers of P2P software, to pay services that are WORTH the money, to the lowering of CD prices...I could go on and on and on, and you could think of others yourself.

I predict that P2P in its current form will be dead by the end of the decade, if not before that. Will it be because the RIAA shuts it down completely, or will it be because the RIAA finally listens to the demands of its customers? Who knows. But anyone who thinks that P2P will last forever needs to face reality.

[Monyak]

Originally posted by TipYourBartender
Why do people think think that just because X million people are filesharing, that it can't be stopped? Millions of people were anti-war, and look how far it got them.

There are PLENTY of ways P2P can die, from the Verizon case, to new legislation, to copy-proof CDs, to the greediness of the makers of P2P software, to pay services that are WORTH the money, to the lowering of CD prices...I could go on and on and on, and you could think of others yourself.

I predict that P2P in its current form will be dead by the end of the decade, if not before that. Will it be because the RIAA shuts it down completely, or will it be because the RIAA finally listens to the demands of its customers? Who knows. But anyone who thinks that P2P will last forever needs to face reality.

P2P constitutes over 700 million internet users (according to a study I read) - Maybe more - Maybe less...

I truly doubt that P2P will be dead. I think that it will just get more sophisticated.

The internet has become boring to many users. P2P makes it interesting.

Maybe in the US they are creating new programs or security measures to prevent copying stuff, but then they are always doing that and it never stopped anybody. Its not a question of what they are doing, it is an issue of how it will be implemented. Nobody is going to pay for what is free, unless you drop the artists CD's down to the price of a blank CD.

Will the internet last forever? Probably...So will P2P, because again, we are talking about connecting people.

[endersgame21]

Once again I agree with you Monyak. Of course p2p will never die. At least not for a couple decades. Why would you pay for something you can get for free. There is no way that the RIAA can shut down p2p completely. It doesn't even sound remotely plausible. The Verizon case is only a scare tactic, nothing more. Copy-proof CDs will never make it, either people will boycott it, there will be compatibility issues, or someone will figure a way around these Copy-proof CDs. I don't really see how there will be a Pay service that will be worth it. Whatever they offer I am sure there will be a free service that can match what they have. I have no problem with the apps I use right now. I get everything I want fine and I don't see how there is anything else I need from a pay service. So I really don't see any reason for p2p to die.

[method]

Okay.. let's go back.. way back in history.. copy protection for microcassette tapes..?? yeah.. floppy disks.. copiers using syncing, copying extra cylinders and RAW copying so errors were duplicated, dongles.. cracks.... unrippable cd's.. line-out or monitor record, CSS.. DeCSS, cuckoo eggs/IP-harvesting... blocking...

The future of P2P isn't in current programs, it's in new technologies... Filetopia and ES5 are showing this with proxies and bouncer-nodes... As bandwidth increases and network structures improve we'll be using each other as carriers for the information, masking our identities, the traffic will be encrypted, hiding the data we're transferring too.

We've proven right from day one that where there is a will.. there is a way.. and now there are millions of us inter-connected, working together to keep things free. If there really was a war against P2P, we'd have won it, but have many of us been bothered by this 'war' the RIAA declared a long time ago?. If P2P was due for a holocaust, every p2p developer would immediately start adding bouncers and encryption into their applications.. it's not an issue..

P2P IS unstoppable!! :;)

[Tremaine]

this is a stupid thread of course it wont die a long as there is a need to transfer files, p2p is the transfering of information to one to another, so as long as there is computers there will be p2p. If you mean large p2p networks that are centralized like napster, there is the few that are still good. Decentralized networks like kazaa will die also. ways of anonymous downloading is next like freenet, and es5 if esf is a efficent at doing so.

[Smoker616]

Many people replying to my thread have seemed to miss my question. Youve been saying that P2P cannot and will not be taken down. I fully agree with all of you, P2P cannot be stopped. But the current way that P2P is carried out can and will be stopped. Trading files on Kazaa is equivalent to standing on a street corner with a table of bootleg cds, wearing a sandwitch board with your name and adress. The future of P2P isn't in current programs, it's in new technologies... Filetopia and ES5 are showing this with proxies and bouncer-nodes... As bandwidth increases and network structures improve we'll be using each other as carriers for the information, masking our identities, the traffic will be encrypted, hiding the data we're transferring too.
The RIAA wont stop untill they have stopped public unencrypted filesharing. We need to be thinking and switching to more secure networks now rather then waiting untill it becomes a problem. If we wait too long the RIAA will have us all on a list to be prosecuted. Which i fear they already do.

[Ken17625]

Washin the dog , washin the dog, dun, dun, washin the dog washin the dog...............

[Sephiroth]

shiny things.. the future of p2p is shiny things..

Who knows.. What it isnt is "anti-freeloading", freenet or other "underground" networks which are suppose to be untraceable and private and secure and etc.. Why because people have been saying that for years now and it hasnt happened, i highly skeptical that it will.

The future i dont think will be some "gloom and doom" media industry induced doomsday either.. If you think so then i suggest you forget about file sharing for a second and take a look at P2P.