Where will File sharing be in 10 Years

[PuNiShErKiLl666]

The way everythings who knows were file sharing going to be in 10 years. Do you think file sharing will be around in 10 years or will everything be closed down or will there even be an internet. You vote

[Caitlyn Marble]

Maybe if we had a crystal ball. I imagine things will be either radically different or incredibly similar. and thats all I'm going to say.

:bk

[TC75580]

I've spent a great deal of research on the subject, and due to increasing holes in security and civil rights pertaining to the Internet, I predict that in 10 years ISPs will be forced to shut down with pressure from the RIAA and MPAA. Consumers will flock to Big Media's new plan for a more secure, private network.

:bk

[evilmegaman]

I think there will be a better thing than file sharing in ten years.

[Wings_of_Azrael]

I don't think file-sharing will be as big in the next 10 years, because of all the persecution from the RIAA and MPAA. However, I think hardcore file-sharers will be using some sort of offspring of FreeNet. Encrypted file sharing seems to be the most likely route, in my opinion.

[mojo-ris-in]

I highly doubt file sharing will ever die. It may go underground but I believe it's here to stay. As far as what type of programs, hard to say what type of file sharing programs will flourish in 10 years. Most likely it will not look anything like what we have now as the technology and software is constantly expanding and reaching for new plateaus.:devil

[Power Penguin]

In 10 years time, it will be better.

Time always makes things better.

[macazar88]

Mabey in 10 years the riaa would have put half the people who file sharein jail then they need 10 more years to et the other half.

[Crazy Horse]

Maybe there will be no need for file sharing. The artists may discover that this is the best medium to use. They may figure out that the present system of recording industry practice is no longer finacially beneficial to them. The RIAA and MPAA could fold if they don't adapt a new business model. 10 years from now there may be no need to "buy" music or go to a movie theater. Computers may have artificial intelligence and do all the thinking. Maybe..... Naw.... We'll probably be doing the same old crap and nothing will have changed that much.

[JordySchmit]

it can only improve.

in ten years time i believe file sharing will be better

[Celtic Fox]

In 10 years time I won't need any files I will have them by then. I only really want mp3's anyway I don't need software that badly. I don't spend all my life on the internet.

[Travis982]

File sharing has existed since recordable media came about. Maybe even before. Vinyl discs to magnetic tape, dual-deck cassette players w/high-speed copying. My grandfather even had a disc cutting machine. True this was all analogue, but the basic concept is the same. And of course, with the internet, it gets more attention now.

No, file sharing will evolve, but never go away.

[ashep612]

What will happen in 10 years? Who knows... In ten years I think it will be much the same, p2p is a runaway train and no one can stop it. The RIAA and MPAA can put on all the pressure they want, and once they do something really ridiculus like throw Joe Neighbor in jail, the American public is going to see just how ludacris all of these new acts and laws are and how they are losing rights and privacy to anyone who wants to see it, things will change. And if they come out with new CD protection, CD burning software will come out with ways to burn the CD otherwise they are out of business, ISPs will not be shut down for the same reason, DVD players, car stereos, and console games will not let the RIAA and MPAA make their systems incompatible with mainstream media. Its all coming to a keg of black powder with at least a 10 year fuse... what will happen? We'll find out I guess...

[MrProxy]

Obviously you people have no sense of time. 10 years is a long time. Lets go back 10 years for a comparison.

In 1992 was in the eighth grade and had a Tandy 1000. 4.77mhz processor, or something ridiculous like that. The thing had no internet connection. For that matter it had no modem. Even worse, it had no hard drive. You booted from disks. No Windows, of course. I dont even think it was DOS. It also had a 16 color display that was revolutionary for the time (4 color CGA long being dominate).

2002, things are vastly different. Ive gone through three other computers, with the current one having a 900mhz processor, 2 internal hard drives that total about 40 megs, Windows ME, and chock full of pirated material that I got from the internet (probably 75% from file sharing programs). Oh right, I graduated from the eighth grade too. And college, and some law school.

So at this rate, we should have direct neural hookups to the internet in 10 years. And as for the people saying that RIAA and such will get much more powerful, how do you know? Maybe in 10 years we'll have a system where everybody contributes to the good of society and everybody gets what they need. A world without fascist police terror, unjust imprisonment, racism, sexism, and god awful network television. Anybody discussing the RIAA in this thread is missing the much bigger picture.

[Ken17625]

I'm not a fortune teller. I cannot predict the future. Too uncertain at this point to even take an educated guess.

[crackerjacker]

Well lets summarize what it will be like. It will still be around but things will be different obviously.
I will say that consumers will have faster pipes. Filesharing will be private groups. Sure there will be some public groups but mostly things will be smaller. Gnutella will still be around perhaps.

Downloads will be fast as hell.
haha
But of course this already exsists to a certainty.
hmm
Let me predict p2p users will be sharing files for free still.
encyrption will be more secure.
Like i said filesharing will be with private groups like it is now, no one will be able to stop filesharing.

i am also with ken on this one, i am unable to predict the future. I can say that whatever law they make about filesharing it will not stop the spread of filesharing in the p2p arena and abroad.

nuff said
mofos ;)

[Excrement_Cranium]

I'm not a fortune teller. I cannot predict the future. Too uncertain at this point to even take an educated guess.


And on that point, I'll take an uneducated guess.....

BPL will revolutionalize the price war over broadband. Connection speeds will skyrocket, and file sharing networks will be tighter and more secure, this will also cause abuse to be just as rampant. The best programs for file sharing will require users to be tech savvy, while other programs will be "dumbed down" for average users...... :playboy

[Afn]

And on that point, I'll take an uneducated guess.....

BPL will revolutionalize the price war over broadband. Connection speeds will skyrocket, and file sharing networks will be tighter and more secure, this will also cause abuse to be just as rampant. The best programs for file sharing will require users to be tech savvy, while other programs will be "dumbed down" for average users...... :playboy
The industry will make it hard for filesharing to exist, but in the end filesharing will marginalize most entertainment businesses. The few that survive will be small and ineffective to mass automated human organization.

I talk more about this in the next National P2P radio show online April 2005.

[MrGonzo]

chances are it may be around but run by the government, meaning very little good stuff out there, and or it will cost!
The end is near people!

[Afn]

chances are it may be around but run by the government, meaning very little good stuff out there, and or it will cost!
The end is near people!
The end is just the begining for freedom. They have seen nothing yet.

P2P will prosper and do well. Hollywood is going to run out of money before the last p2p network ceases operation.

[truelyme]

File sharing in the sense we know it won't exist in 10 years. As bad as I hate to say that, I suspect it will be true. As MrProxy has mentioned, 10 years is a long time in the virtual world.

Why do I say this though? Well, lets look at what is going on now in the present day. You have content cartels pushing to have nearly every law changed that has something to do with protecting their owned content. (Even though this is contrary to the rest of the nations needs.) You have them conspiring with the WIPO treaties to set up a world wide protection. Which incidently the WIPO committee setting these rules up, denied those would would stand for the public at large and protecting those rights entrance without being a member of the committee and making it a closed door done deal by the time they can become members.

You have corporations such as Microsoft, supporting all sorts of anticopy. The industry as a whole will not allow a license to use their owned patents unless that equipment supports anticopy locks. Those locks are now becoming hardware locks and not software locks. Hardware locks are far more difficult to get around. Software can be dealt with by hackers but most of the hardware isn't going to be that simple. This licensing of only hardware that supports this prevention will lead to each and every computer being a police watchman to prevent you from getting the source or from copying. Isn't just computers either. Dvd players or recorders, cd players (if they still exist then), whatever playback or record method exists will have it incorporated within it.

Sneaker nets, snail mail, and personnal trading have long been methods of transfering data, songs, and movies. If you can't get a source, how will you send it to someone else?

The onset of digital has allowed the content cartels to once again try protectism as the method of control of these. To them anticopy is the holy grail. It allows them to set up an artifical repeat buy. In past years, you bought the same songs that were your favorites over and over as the formats changed, Record, tape, cd, and dvd. The days of format changing doesn't come as often now. So they seek to get you to buy over and over your favorites artifically by limiting the amount of copies you can record.

One of the other things is that of bogus figures. The industry is notorious for figure juggling. No longer does the industry tell you that they gained or lost in dollar figures. Instead they use units shipped. Now units shipped can be anything. As an example let us just take the record clubs. Artists aren't paid royalties on record club sales. Record clubs normally sell at below MRSP. They also include inticements such as you buy so many you get some free. So here you have units shipped that weren't at retail value. When looked at as units shipped it looks like they did better than the dollar figure indicates. Something very valuable when it comes to reporting to stock holders. At the same time, other folks supposedly keep track of the dollar figure. Such as the Nielson stuff. They will report dollar figures but those dollar figures are going to look lower than what units shipped will look like.

[truelyme]

Forgot some things here. TCP or Trusted Computing is making its entrance onto the scene. It is the hardware watchdog I mentioned. Already if you buy a new Dell or the like it is included with in the computer as a special chip. You are not being left the choice of if you will buy it. It will be included free of charge, just like DRM. For the present you can opt to turn it off. Don't be fooled. You think a software company is going to allow you to copy their product for free distrubition? Most likely as part of the EULA there will be some mention of allowing the software to make any changes to your setting to allow the software to run. You can bet that one of them will be to activate the lock as a condition for the software to run. At some point an upgrade will be a mandatory on setting for the TCP to be in active mode. All it will take will be a critical mass of computers containing such TCP equipped machines already on the market.

Sadly the day of copying is coming to an end. Personally I won't have much use for computers at that point. Nor will I have much use for broadband in the same time. This protectionism in the long run will not help the economy.

[Auggie2k]

The way everythings who knows were file sharing going to be in 10 years. Do you think file sharing will be around in 10 years or will everything be closed down or will there even be an internet. You vote

The exact same place, except our download speeds of 5K-500K now will probably be 500K-50000K. I may be exaggerating a tiny bit but look at the jump in technology from 10 years ago! Or have we peaked in our technology...? We'll have to wait and see...

[Malicious Intent]

Only 7 1/2 left and we will find out.

[Afn]

File sharing in the sense we know it won't exist in 10 years. As bad as I hate to say that, I suspect it will be true. As MrProxy has mentioned, 10 years is a long time in the virtual world.

Why do I say this though? Well, lets look at what is going on now in the present day. You have content cartels pushing to have nearly every law changed that has something to do with protecting their owned content.

They will report dollar figures but those dollar figures are going to look lower than what units shipped will look like.
Locked down content will not happen for 5 or so years, many things can happen in 5 years.

Tyrannical systems never last. They ALWAYS fail. Before or after we are all dead...

In 10 to 15 years most of this will not be an issue.

[whitenoise22]

Obviously you people have no sense of time. 10 years is a long time. Lets go back 10 years for a comparison.

In 1992 was in the eighth grade and had a Tandy 1000. 4.77mhz processor, or something ridiculous like that. The thing had no internet connection. For that matter it had no modem. Even worse, it had no hard drive. You booted from disks. No Windows, of course. I dont even think it was DOS. It also had a 16 color display that was revolutionary for the time (4 color CGA long being dominate).

2002, things are vastly different. Ive gone through three other computers, with the current one having a 900mhz processor, 2 internal hard drives that total about 40 megs, Windows ME, and chock full of pirated material that I got from the internet (probably 75% from file sharing programs). Oh right, I graduated from the eighth grade too. And college, and some law school.

So at this rate, we should have direct neural hookups to the internet in 10 years. And as for the people saying that RIAA and such will get much more powerful, how do you know? Maybe in 10 years we'll have a system where everybody contributes to the good of society and everybody gets what they need. A world without fascist police terror, unjust imprisonment, racism, sexism, and god awful network television. Anybody discussing the RIAA in this thread is missing the much bigger picture.

10 years ago would be 1995

[Mels_Smileys45]

Hollywood is going to run out of money before the last p2p network ceases operation.


That doesn't sound too good for them or us. I happen to love movies and can't blame them much for trying to protect their rights or for trying to run a business.

Yeah I like getting stuff for free with out having to work and make the money to afford it. But then why should the movie people work to entertain me for free? All the bitching and moaning about we deserve to have free information is not only getting old, its really fucking retarded!

[Undercurrent]

That doesn't sound too good for them or us. I happen to love movies and can't blame them much for trying to protect their rights or for trying to run a business.

Yeah I like getting stuff for free with out having to work and make the money to afford it. But then why should the movie people work to entertain me for free? All the bitching and moaning about we deserve to have free information is not only getting old, its really fucking retarded!

Because its their art and what they love to do. Musicians and Actors will always be able to make money, whether or not there is a large Corporate industry behind them, albeit maybe not millions of dollars as some were before. There will always be people making music and movies, and there will always be a demand for such people. I think It would be great if the movie industry or music industry would crumble, because then the crap artists that are in it for just the money would go away for ever hopefully, and the true artists that make music or act because they love their art would continue to do so because they are genuine and really care. And if this were the case the overall quality of the whole entertainment industry would increase.

[Excrement_Cranium]

That doesn't sound too good for them or us. I happen to love movies and can't blame them much for trying to protect their rights or for trying to run a business.

Yeah I like getting stuff for free with out having to work and make the money to afford it. But then why should the movie people work to entertain me for free? All the bitching and moaning about we deserve to have free information is not only getting old, its really fucking retarded!


I'll agree with that. I don't really download movies. Music... well... fuck em. If big business music goes down the drain, I guess I'll just have to support local bands, and people who do things like put on affordable live shows for music, or make my own damn music.

The gears of the corporate machine are oiled by the blood of the workers......

[Mels_Smileys45]

I'll agree with that. I don't really download movies. Music... well... fuck em. If big business music goes down the drain, I guess I'll just have to support local bands, and people who do things like put on affordable live shows for music, or make my own damn music.

The gears of the corporate machine are oiled by the blood of the workers......

I agree with that----

Yeah I hate most new music so I care less about the people trying to make a living. The stuff I do like is so rare I really have to hunt for it and do not really find it on the net.
________________

Hell I worked for the "Big Business" for a long time. So the fuck what. Everyone does at some point. People just want free shit. Tell the goddman truth people. Buttfucking Bradybunch! If people destroy the movie biz guess what, youll have to watch the same old crap! Poor bullshit! It doesn't make sense to destroy a business just because you want free shit.

And being an actor is harder than you think. You have to be smart for starters, then theres the 14 hour days and nights, memorizing tons of dialog when your off work. That shits hard. All to entertain a bunch of bastards who do nothing but complain. Sounds like a real fun job. I would love it

[Abyss00]

Popular demand will make file sharing legel similar to radio now and they will be some form of tax to pay the artists.

Or big money will win and file sharing will be illegel but will continue through new better anonymous networks.

Either way file sharing will be more wide spread then it is now.

[Afn]

That doesn't sound too good for them or us. I happen to love movies and can't blame them much for trying to protect their rights or for trying to run a business.

Yeah I like getting stuff for free with out having to work and make the money to afford it. But then why should the movie people work to entertain me for free? All the bitching and moaning about we deserve to have free information is not only getting old, its really fucking retarded!
It is not a question if we want free information, the fact is that automation is going to make information free regardless of drm, ip, software controls, ect. Drm can retard some information leakage, but information is going free and we are past the point of no return.

[Afn]

Popular demand will make file sharing legel similar to radio now and they will be some form of tax to pay the artists.

Or big money will win and file sharing will be illegel but will continue through new better anonymous networks.

Either way file sharing will be more wide spread then it is now.
Over the air broadcast radio is dying.

"file sharing will be more wide spread "

Yes, regardless of what happens p2p is here to stay and is going to get better and better.

[transduction]

My prediction for file sharing is that it is here to stay. It will be here in ten year. You can't put the genie back in the bottle. Saying file sharing will be gone in ten years is like saying all the countries on earth will get together and destroy their nuclear weapons: A pipe dream. In ten years file sharing and the internet itself will be more advanced, more interactive. If you guys want an idea of what the future of the net will be, check out Michio Kaku's book called Vision. You can get it at Amazon. I've read it and it has fantastic things to say about the future of the net, and the world period. If humans can get it together.

[MrDavid]

This is what I think will happen: The RIAA and MPAA will continue in their efforts to counter piracy, forcing people to turn to file sharing software that utilizes encrypted data distribution. This would mean that no user connected to the network could be matched with any of the files currently being transferred. The RIAA and MPAA will moan and groan about this, and eventually they will persuade the government(+s) to make the ISPs responsible for their customers' use file sharing software.

If not already made illegal by law, ISPs will ban the transfer of encrypted data through their networks as part of their Terms of Service, which will bring the absolute end of privacy another step closer. The government and ISPs will claim, and eventually persuade us, that this was a logical course of action and was the only responsible thing to do when faced with terrorists and criminals who also happen to made use of this easy-to-use encryption (who will now be forced even deeper underground). And if that's not enough, I'm certain the government, RIAA, MPAA, and a whole host of other organisations will have a major part in saying what goes into and who gets to monitor the faster, cleaner, more reliable Internet2 network that will replace the now abandoned original internet that may very well then be made illegal.

Despite all of this, there will always be file sharers, but in 10 years I believe that this will be restricted to a relatively small number of people using open source software tools too advanced for the average computer user. But of course I could be very wrong; who knows what the future holds?

[DwarfBaby]

Transduction is right. Long live file sharing and nuclear weapons. I predict more of both in ten years.

[shawners]

Three years later, still improving and going strong.

[Apaleador]

I believe that there will be more restrictions applied to the internet. ISPs will be held accountable for illegal file swapping. Which will make them start regulating where you go or what you can do on the internet. But as far as p2ps go, I think the internet speed will be increased exponentionally (where a 1GB file will download in 10 mins) and the p2ps will flourish and grow.