Slyck's hypothetical situation: What if P2P wins?

[killswitch1968]

Clicky (http://www.slyck.com/news.php?story=282)

This is exactly what I've thought for a long time now:

P2p makes all music free. Most importantly, this REMOVES THE PROFIT MOTIVE FROM MAKING MUSIC. Now the only bands making music do it for free. The wealth of software out there makes it cheaper to produce music than ever before. All the corporate bands dissolve and music gets better. It's a win-win situation for all but the labels, who are an efficient means to end that must be eradicated like the middlemen they are.
I can imagine that the money people DON'T spend on $20 pieces of plastic could go toward helping the band, through tours, T-shirts, or other merchandise. Music will not die, the music business will.

What slyck forgot to mention was OTHER media, media that may not necessarily be considered art, such as:

Movies
This is a no brainer. Free movies on the internet will never replace movies in the theatre because face it, no one wants to huddle around a computer. In fact it would probably ENCOURAGE people to see these movies in the theatre (providing they were good) after viewing them on their computer. What would find is a drop in worthless movies designed purely for financial gain (read: The Grind)

Software
Already we see a huge open source movement at sourceforge. The only problem with this is that the people who develop this software are also employed by other software companies to produce the same software that is now available for free. Being a computer programmer is no longer profitable, and so software development stops.
EXCEPT: Companies are WILLING to pay independent programmers to develop open source software as reported at slashdot not but a month ago. CLearly they realize the business potential of supporting these people.

For both music and software, hordes of money that would have gone to advertising and needless distribution is eliminted and the public profit.

Long live P2P!!

[origin]

indeed....but then once again this is a hypothetical "if" situation I would love to see happen but time will tell the answer to that...long live p2p ;)

l8

[killswitch1968]

indeed....but then once again this is a hypothetical "if" situation I would love to see happen but time will tell the answer to that...long live p2p ;)
I personally think it hinges on anonymity. If a network can be setup that is efficient, has global searches, hashes, swarming, anonymous sharing, and a user friendly interface; the RIAA could do nothing against it, save destroying the entire internet.
First they tried to sue the p2p programmers, then came decentralization.
Now they're trying to sue the downloaders, and anonymity will develop. Already freenet, bighack.org, and WASTE have come up with methods for this.
Who's left to sue? ISPs? Give me a break.

[Lucian]

Thats not true. P2P does ont make all music free, you guys dont have a clue about how economics work.

Look, there are plenty of ways to make money off P2P, theres ad revenue, theres people who will pay for high quality files, theres musicians who just need increased exposure so they can sell more concert tickets, there are people who dont mind paying for music if its around 50 cent a song, so to say P2P will make music completely free is dumb.

It will never be completely free, you'll either be going to concerts or you'll be buying mp3s, I myself would prefer to go to concerts as musicians make more money at concerts, and I want my favorite musicians to come here.

You on the other hand just want free music so in the big picture, you wont count at all, you already dont go to concerts and never purchased music in the first place so you'll get free music with or without P2P.

[Psilaxs]

Who is going to pay for games that take 3-5 years to develope? NO ONE is going to to that as an "Open Source" project.

[killswitch1968]

Look, there are plenty of ways to make money off P2P, theres ad revenue, theres people who will pay for high quality files, theres musicians who just need increased exposure so they can sell more concert tickets, there are people who dont mind paying for music if its around 50 cent a song
It will never be completely free, you'll either be going to concerts or you'll be buying mp3s, I myself would prefer to go to concerts as musicians make more money at concerts, and I want my favorite musicians to come here.

Ad revenue? Look at all the lite and diet versions of p2p programs floating around. p2p users loathe spyware and adware. Unless there's something I'm missing, programming p2p software shouldn't generate no profit at all. High quality files? New methods of compression are being introduced to increase the quality of the music files, such as oggs and FLAC.

Music files will be free, music won't. I went to 10 different concerts last year and spent $80 on merchandise AND bought most of their CDs. I would certainly say I support the bands, and support them strongly. And if it weren't for all that money wasted on CDs I would have been seen more bands. I also prefer concerts of course..

If you want to talk economics, how's this simple truth: No one will pay $0.50/song when they can get the same thing for free, unless they want to support the artist. In which case they'll donate/buy merchandise like I do. Without a competetive advantage, pay-per-download will fail against free files.

This is going to take a LONG time, if it'll happen at all. But then again that was the point of the article, not whether it will happen, but if it did what are the consequences?

You on the other hand just want free music so in the big picture, you wont count at all, you already dont go to concerts and never purchased music in the first place so you'll get free music with or without P2P.
Gross generalization. See above paragraph. I have buckets of CDs that I've ripped and shared. I like to believe that people have discovered and supported the same artists I have by doing what I did: downloading and then buying the CD. In which case I certainly do matter.

[Malicious Intent]

One day we will be telling our kids about how music was free. We will bug them with the story of the armchair war between the good sharing community and the evil corporations every time the ask for money to buy the latest CD.
Hopefully not though. Hopefully they wont be bugging for money for CDs but for the latest upgrade. Perhaps the super fast equivilent to TV torrents will be intergrated into the plasma TV.

[killswitch1968]

Who is going to pay for games that take 3-5 years to develope? NO ONE is going to to that as an "Open Source" project.

Click (http://sourceforge.net/projects/x-commercenary/)
Click (http://sourceforge.net/projects/settlers3d/)
Click (http://sourceforge.net/projects/megamek/)
etc. etc.

However I will be the first to say that the number of games would decrease per year.

[aqlo]

However I will be the first to say that the number of games would decrease per year.No they wouldn't. The games will be free. The cheats will cost you geometrically larger amounts :)

Thanks for the links :gj

[Psilaxs]

Click (http://sourceforge.net/projects/x-commercenary/)
Click (http://sourceforge.net/projects/settlers3d/)
Click (http://sourceforge.net/projects/megamek/)
etc. etc.

However I will be the first to say that the number of games would decrease per year.

You missd my point. I didn't say just Games. I said Games that take 3-5 years to develope. Advanced games, not board games or turn based games. Games Like Doom 3 Half Life 2 Soldier Of Fortune 2. Unreal Tournament. Command and Conquer Generals. Etc Etc.

[notbob]

meh

entire systems like the MPAA, ones with clout and lots of money don't evaporate like that

especially since intellectual property will soon be the only product still made in america (we are sending all the real jobs overseas)

maybe in whatever dream world they live in over there they do

[jonnymnemonic]

Well, obviously, anything that takes massive manpower to make that is available for free will cease to be available at all. That would include large-scale games, probably a large number of movies, and many books. Our future may simply not be as culturally diverse and viable as it is today. We'll survive, of course, if so. No one ever died for lack of a Half Life 2, or lack of a B horror movie so bad it's funny, or lack of a book. There will still be SOME stuff available, just not as much, and by and large what is available won't be as good as what we have today. Technology brings both benefits and drawbacks. A decrease in cultural diversity may ultimately be the price we all end up paying.

Think about it: we may be at the very peak of human cultural diversity RIGHT NOW. I suspect we are, and that it will be downhill from here. Enjoy this time while we're in it!

[Kevin06906]

P2P wins and no more RIAA.

I wish, i hope, its not like i was going to buy anything anyway if P2P lost.

Let me tell you something, if an Italian like me ever heard the word "Free" then, we would stay with the word "Free".

Italians like me are cheap...nothng wrong with being cheap...its smart actually....who actually wants to spend their money period?

[Shadow Lane]

If P2P loses it just means more of the same old, same old. If we win it means a brave new world. I wanna have a peek. If it means Britney Spears will have to start singing in clubs, I'll learn to live with it.

[origin]

My 2 cents....

if p2p looses then the Big powerfull corperations/organazations have won...and realize this like it or not it is the fault of the US gov that allows all this stuff to happen they are all fat bastards sitting on rolls of money wondering about how to ruin the average persons life today, how to gain more money/power over people...Get a hobby geeeessh!. At that point in time you must ask you're self this question is this what democracy is really like??

l8

[stts]

P2P will provide a quick on demand means to get whatever we need for our pc's whenever we need it. Note the word "need". However, if we want something beter, we wait till the stores open up and we go and spend money for that something better. That is the way it will be and I dont see any stopping it. Companies in music, videoes, and software will start produceing a product "worth" buying to compete with the offerings on p2p. Music in stores will have more included like artwork, lyrics, club memberships with artist access, maybe even free web storage with tools to quickly assemble a playlist for members for a paticular day. Movies are already enhancing their offering with lots of dvd extras that will only increase with time to compete with p2p. Software will be less buggy and have more registered member support to keep purchasers happy and solve their problems more quickly. Software from p2p has no support and upgrades so its a mater of how much hassel you want to put up with over time. Eventually, there will be no more software for the pc, and your computer will simply be a terminal to the internet. You will subscribe to a monthly service like Time Warner Computing that will offer storage, word processing, accounting, gameing, mail, audio/video, etc. They will compete with other companies that offer more of the same and p2p will start to fade as the cheap monthly charge offers us all we really need in computing. This is where we are going, and if the economy picks up in technology again, this may hapen in 6 to 10 years. Rouge stand alone pc's will still be around for the sole enjoyment of geeks but they will be used less and less as more people spend their time on the terminal provided free by the service provider and content continually encrypted to only work on these terminals. Pirating will never go away but it will be a dull wimper just like braking into cable access is today. People always talk about it but i have never and i dony know of anyone that has hacked into cable to save $50.00 a month. But I do know of a simple hack that makes the electric meter run as slow as you want. This comes in handy if you chose to go thru the entire winter with a nominal $65.00 electric bill and never have your fuel oil tank filled. You can even heat the above ground swimming pool for use all year round and go almost a decade with noone even suspecting. Yup, that is a hack worth its weight in gold. :devil

[begoodbebad]

Clicky (http://www.slyck.com/news.php?story=282)

This is exactly what I've thought for a long time now:

P2p makes all music free. Most importantly, this REMOVES THE PROFIT MOTIVE FROM MAKING MUSIC. Now the only bands making music do it for free. The wealth of software out there makes it cheaper to produce music than ever before. All the corporate bands dissolve and music gets better. It's a win-win situation for all but the labels, who are an efficient means to end that must be eradicated like the middlemen they are.
I can imagine that the money people DON'T spend on $20 pieces of plastic could go toward helping the band, through tours, T-shirts, or other merchandise. Music will not die, the music business will.

What slyck forgot to mention was OTHER media, media that may not necessarily be considered art, such as:

Movies
This is a no brainer. Free movies on the internet will never replace movies in the theatre because face it, no one wants to huddle around a computer. In fact it would probably ENCOURAGE people to see these movies in the theatre (providing they were good) after viewing them on their computer. What would find is a drop in worthless movies designed purely for financial gain (read: The Grind)

Software
Already we see a huge open source movement at sourceforge. The only problem with this is that the people who develop this software are also employed by other software companies to produce the same software that is now available for free. Being a computer programmer is no longer profitable, and so software development stops.
EXCEPT: Companies are WILLING to pay independent programmers to develop open source software as reported at slashdot not but a month ago. CLearly they realize the business potential of supporting these people.

For both music and software, hordes of money that would have gone to advertising and needless distribution is eliminted and the public profit.

Long live P2P!!

A misapprehension: you assume that the "genuine" artists, whoever they are, are not strongly motivated to make money. Talented people can make money in various different creative fields. They have to eat and also we all like a little extra....If you look back through history you can see that many of the greatest works in art, literature and music were commissioned by wealthy patrons from artists who were very keen to make some cash. Being motivated for financial success is not incompatible with great talent or integrity. These days art is less often commissioned so the profit motive and modern capitalist mechanisms take that place. You could even say this gives artists greater freedom to express their own ideas. I do agree though that most popular music is utterly free of any worthwhile element and is manufactured rather than created. The problem is that for these people fame/money has become the only inspiration.

A second point concerns movies. I don't believe that downloaded movies are a threat to cinema going. The threat for the industry is to vhs/dvd rental and to the saleability of the product to TV stations. So your comparison is too easy. Huge profits are made from rental and by selling to TV companies who seek to gain advertising revenue. So your no brainer left its brain switched off.... :upside

Interesting idea though...p2p winning...another scenario could be that one day most music that is available digitally will be old or historical...most products only have high value due to scarcity...maybe artists will make money by only performing live....for a very high price of course, which people will pay as there is no CD or DVD, just an occasional cd single or 5 minute broadcast to whet the audience's appetite...We would have to do that old fashioned thing...remembering and reminiscing.

[shawners]

Most people hate spyware cause the devoloper of the p2p software is exposing your rights to not have cookies or something reporting back on your web experience, as well as money going to the programer.. We all rather see the artist get their money. But i wont buy a CD until these lawsuits are stopped, and they can still prove that TLC sold 10 million albums, and still filed bankruptcy cause of the recording industry sucking all their cash.

[Afn]

Well, obviously, anything that takes massive manpower to make that is available for free will cease to be available at all. That would include large-scale games, probably a large number of movies, and many books. Our future may simply not be as culturally diverse and viable as it is today. We'll survive, of course, if so. No one ever died for lack of a Half Life 2, or lack of a B horror movie so bad it's funny, or lack of a book. There will still be SOME stuff available, just not as much, and by and large what is available won't be as good as what we have today. Technology brings both benefits and drawbacks. A decrease in cultural diversity may ultimately be the price we all end up paying.

Think about it: we may be at the very peak of human cultural diversity RIGHT NOW. I suspect we are, and that it will be downhill from here. Enjoy this time while we're in it!


You gave me an idea. The future:


1. no advertising in any form.
2. No books in any form.
3. Robots create the music, in any style.
4. Robots create the webpages in any quanity.
5. Robots serve me.
6. Robots help me.

Technology is absorbing 'world' culture and any culture in books fictional or not.

Artists will still have hits, culture will still have icons, but society and property will fundamentally change. in 1903, brodcasting did not exist. Today, in 2003 the replacement for networked brodcasting has not been created.

There is research in to trans-humanism, extended life spans and brain-in-a-box.

If you wached star trek the next generation, you may have noticed that the show, except for a very very few 'rogue traders' do not talk about money or need to get or lack of money. Money in the 'federation' does not exist.

The future is post-monetary.

[jonnymnemonic]

The reason there's no money in Star Trek is they have mastered the technology of creating material goods from raw energy, and they have solved the energy problem (with dilithium crystals). Thus, nothing really has any value, since anything can be readily turned into anything else. (But why can't they create dilithium crystals with their replicators? That's kinda weird, that they can't. So I guess dilithium crystals still have some value.)

I remember reading a science fiction story where mankind learned the secret of water-based fusion power, thus creating a basically infinite amount of energy. This meant that humans pretty much had absolutely nothing they *had* to do - no jobs necessary. People still did stuff, but not many, and those who did stuff did it solely for entertainment, as hobbies. Mostly, people just plugged into virtual reality tanks and spent their lives experiencing whatever pleasures they could dream up, to pass the time. Since they didn't often have actual phsyical contact with each other, the human race began to dwindle in numbers. It was actually a rather sad story, to achieve the ultimate goal, infinite energy, but then end up living lives totally without purpose. Ultimately, as I recall, robots ended up taking over that world, with humankind's blessing, since humans had no need or desire to run things themselves anymore. Keeping the humans in their tanks alive and happy became the purpose of the robots, while humans really had no purpose left at all other than living pleasurable lives in their tanks.

[IOE]

On cultural diversity....
culture as such is not defined by the amount of money put in it... In fact, large centers of money (Hollywood, major record labels) create one uniform, global culture. So if you want diversity, p2p is the best. However, global culture forces onto people a common morality, enhances understanding between nations and people, ultimately giving world peace on decaf instant coffee.

[Afn]

The reason there's no money in Star Trek is 1) they have mastered the technology of creating material goods from raw energy, and they have solved the energy problem (with dilithium crystals). Thus, nothing really has any value, since anything can be readily turned into anything else. (But why can't they create dilithium crystals with their replicators? That's kinda weird, that they can't. So I guess dilithium crystals still have some value.)

2) Keeping the humans in their tanks alive and happy became the purpose of the robots, while humans really had no purpose left at all other than living pleasurable lives in their tanks.


1) It works as a story device.

Energy... unlimited energy from the sun. There is a new fusion lab in California, USA. If it works, enegy so cheap you can not meter it.

Amazing time.

2) We are a few generations from that occuring, if ever.

In a few years when we have reversed engineered the body, and a robot can do any human task, or better, there will not be much to do. Would be exciting times if it did occur.

Does make for an interesting story. Rogue robots take over world and enslave humans.

:)